Larry's Economic Dashboard

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Sector Spotlight

Market Pulse — AI Analysis

US Treasury Yield Curve

The full cost of US government borrowing at every time horizon. The shape of this curve drives mortgage rates, corporate loans, and recession signals. An inverted curve (short rates higher than long rates) has preceded every recession since 1950.

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Forward-Looking Composite Indicators

Four models that aggregate dozens of inputs into a single signal — how stressed is the financial system and are we heading into recession?

Chicago Fed NFCI

National Financial Conditions Index

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Loose ← 0 → TightChicago Fed ↗

NY Fed Recession Probability

12-month forward, from yield curve

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below 20% safe · above 30% warningNY Fed ↗

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Real-time Q2 2026 GDP estimate

Live model

+1.2%

Slowing

Q2 2026 tracking estimate. Slowing from Q1's ~2.5% as energy shock hits consumer spending. Updates with each major data release (retail sales, jobs, trade).

Updates with each major releaseAtlanta Fed ↗

BofA Bull & Bear

18-input sentiment model (0–10)

Neutral

4.5

Neutral

Score of 4.5/10 — neither extreme greed nor capitulation. Contrarian signal: readings below 2 = buy, above 8 = sell. Weekly from BofA Global Research.

0–2 bull · 4–6 neutral · 8–10 bear

Live Market Charts — TradingView

Natural Gas

Henry Hub Natural Gas — Annual avg ($/MMBtu)

~$2.50

Spring lull. Watch for summer spike as LNG exports rise and cooling demand peaks in June–August.

EIA Gas Weekly ↗

Why Natural Gas Matters Now

Fertilizer link: About 80% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizer (urea, anhydrous ammonia) is natural gas. When gas spikes, fertilizer costs spike — and food prices follow 6–12 months later.

Electricity: About 40% of US electricity comes from natural gas. Higher gas prices mean higher utility bills for homes and businesses.

LNG exports: 100% of US production gains are exported. More LNG terminals = tighter domestic supply = higher bills. Trump reversed Biden's LNG export slowdown.

Europe: Far more gas-dependent than the US. Prolonged Middle East disruption puts European energy security at risk, which moves global gas markets.

Agricultural Inputs & Fertilizer

Fertilizer prices lead CPI food components by 6–12 months. Mosaic (MOS) is a live proxy for fertilizer sector health.

Urea (Nitrogen) — approx $/MT

~$340

Main nitrogen fertilizer. ~80% of cost is natural gas. Spiked to $850 in 2022 energy crisis.

IndexMundi ↗

DAP (Phosphate) — approx $/MT

~$445

Key phosphate fertilizer. Linked to mining costs and China export policy.

IndexMundi ↗

Mosaic Co. (MOS) — Fertilizer Proxy

~$21

Largest N. American fertilizer producer. Peaked at $72 in 2022 energy crisis.

Yahoo Finance ↗

⚡ Energy Supply Monitor — Mr. Global

Key indicators tracked by Matt Randolph — 33 years in oil & gas, owns an operating oil company. @MrGlobalYouTube

WTI Crude Oil Price

$62/bbl

$70 — new well break-even floor

$60 — existing well profitability floor

Below new well break-even — drilling stops

Implication: At $62, oil companies will not drill new wells — it costs more than they make. "Drill Baby Drill" is economically impossible at this price. The US needs ~$70/bbl to incentivize new drilling. 100% of US production gains since 2016 have been exported.

How to assess: $60–$70 = no new drilling but existing wells continue. Below $60 = some existing wells go offline. Above $70 = new drilling resumes in 6–12 months. Watch Baker Hughes rig count as the lagging confirmation.

EIA WTI daily ↗

Baker Hughes US Rig Count

↓ Declining

Need ~700 rigs for flat production

Fewer rigs than Inauguration Day

Supply contraction signal — watch weekly

Implication: The US needs 7,000–8,000 new wells per year just to hold production flat — every existing well declines from day one. Fewer rigs = fewer new wells = US output falls 12–18 months out. The rig count is the earliest reliable signal of future production direction.

How to assess: Baker Hughes publishes every Friday. Three consecutive weekly declines = contraction confirmed. Three weekly gains = supply recovery beginning. "Drill Baby Drill" is directly falsifiable — this is the scoreboard.

Baker Hughes weekly ↗

Strait of Hormuz Status

Day ~80

Normal: 20M b/d pass through

Bypassed via Cape route: ~8M b/d

Net lost to market: ~12–13M b/d

Closure ongoing — cannot be rerouted at scale

Implication: There is no infrastructure to replace 12–13M b/d. Rerouting around Africa adds weeks and triples shipping costs. Global SPRs are being drawn down daily — but they have floors. Once SPRs are exhausted, the market has no cushion left.

How to assess: Oil $90–$110 = market absorbing via SPR draw. Oil $130+ = cushion thinning fast. Diplomatic talks with Iran = most bullish signal. Ceasefire = buy signal. New military ultimatum = no progress.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve

~340M bbl

Release: 1.22M b/d (record)

Gap filled: ~10% of disruption

Record release rate — still can't fill the gap

Implication: Even at record 1.22M b/d release, the SPR plugs only ~10% of the 12–13M b/d disruption. SPR "loans" do not suppress prices — the market expects that oil back. Only outright sales suppress spot prices.

How to assess: EIA publishes SPR levels weekly. Below 300M bbl = serious. Below 250M bbl = critical. Watch whether releases are loans vs. sales — only sales create real price suppression.

EIA SPR weekly ↗

Henry Hub Natural Gas

~$2.50/MMBtu

Now: spring lull, mild demand

Summer + LNG exports → price spike

Deceptively quiet — watch June–August

Implication: Spring prices look calm — but they are seasonal. Once summer heat arrives and LNG exports ramp up, domestic supply tightens rapidly. People in deregulated NE states have seen $1,200–$1,400 monthly electric bills.

How to assess: Henry Hub below $3 = stable bills. $3–$5 = elevated. Above $5 = utility bill shock. Watch: summer temperature forecasts, LNG export terminal utilization, storage injection vs. 5-year average.

EIA Gas weekly ↗

Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Watch

Connects Red Sea to Indian Ocean

If closed: second chokepoint gone

Open but at risk — escalation path close

Implication: If Bab-el-Mandeb closes alongside Hormuz, two of the world's critical maritime arteries fail simultaneously. At that point we are no longer discussing recession — we are discussing a depression on the scale of the 1930s. Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq alone processes 7% of global oil supply.

How to assess: Houthi attack frequency in the Red Sea is the leading indicator. Any confirmed strike on Abqaiq or major Gulf infrastructure = immediate price spike. Two straits closing simultaneously = scenario outside normal financial modeling.

Food Price Inflation

4-yr High

Fastest rise in 4 years

Oil → fertilizer → shipping → food

Oil shock transmitting into food prices

Implication: Food prices rising at a 4-year high is the first visible consumer sign that the oil supply shock is spreading. The chain: high fuel costs raise fertilizer costs, which raise farming costs, which raise shipping costs, which raise grocery prices.

How to assess: USDA Food Price Outlook and CPI food sub-index. If food inflation persists even after oil stabilizes, second-round effects are embedded — the Fed cannot ignore this, may raise rates into a slowing economy. That is stagflation.

LNG Export Volumes

↑ Rising

100% of US gas gains go to export

More exports = higher domestic prices

Exports pulling domestic prices higher

Implication: Every increase in US natural gas production has been exported — domestic consumers do not benefit. LNG exports are rising under Trump (Biden tried to slow approvals to protect domestic bills; Trump reversed this). More LNG terminals = tighter domestic supply = higher bills.

How to assess: EIA publishes weekly LNG export data. Rising exports correlated with rising Henry Hub prices confirm the squeeze. Any new LNG terminal approved = future domestic price pressure in 18–24 months.

EIA LNG data ↗

⚠ Worst-Case Scenarios — if Hormuz stays closed through summer

Oil Price

→ $200/bbl

"That's arithmetic, not a prediction." SPR depletion + no reroute capacity + summer demand = price formula with no natural ceiling.

Global GDP

−3 to −4%

Worse than 2008. Simultaneous global recession with no coordinated fiscal response — all governments already stretched from COVID stimulus.

Both Straits Close

Depression

Hormuz + Bab-el-Mandeb simultaneously = global supply chain rupture. 1930s-scale contraction. Cannot be fixed by any "transition to alternatives."

Infrastructure Damage

Years of Pain

Abqaiq processes 7% of global oil. Significant damage = years to rebuild. This scenario outlasts any ceasefire — the sleeper risk.

Scenario Presets — jump to a macro environment

Fed Funds Rate

4.33%

Normal

CPI Inflation

3.2%

Normal

Oil Price

$105

Watch

Bond Yields

4.59%

Normal

Bond Prices

92.4

Normal

S&P 500

5,820

Normal

Unemployment

4.1%

Normal

Adjust Variables — all gauges update live

Fed Funds Rate4.33%

0% → 10% | base: 4.33%

CPI Inflation (YoY)3.2%

0% → 12% | base: 3.2%

10-Year Yield4.59%

0.5% → 9% | base: 4.59%

Unemployment4.1%

2% → 14% | base: 4.1%

Oil Price ($/bbl)$105

$30 → $200 | base: $105

S&P 5005,820

1,500 → 8,500 | base: 5,820

Projected Impacts

5-yr rolling correlations. Bond duration ~7.5. Effects have 12–18mo lags in reality.

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