Larry's Economic Dashboard

Causation Chain

Run a cycle to generate analysis.

Macro Overview

Risk Watch

What to Watch — Next 7 Days

What the Level Heads Are Saying

Dalio · Marks · Buffett · Druckenmiller · Grantham · El-Erian — translated into plain English

Significant News

Loading geopolitical analysis...

Sector Spotlight

Market Pulse — AI Analysis

Forward-Looking Composite Indicators

Four models that aggregate dozens of inputs into a single signal — how stressed is the financial system and are we heading into recession?

Chicago Fed NFCI

National Financial Conditions Index

Loading…

—

Loading…

Loose ← 0 → TightChicago Fed ↗

NY Fed Recession Probability

12-month forward, from yield curve

Loading…

—

Loading…

below 20% safe · above 30% warningNY Fed ↗

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Real-time Q2 2026 GDP estimate

Live model

+1.2%

Slowing

Q2 2026 tracking estimate. Slowing from Q1's ~2.5% as energy shock hits consumer spending. Updates with each major data release (retail sales, jobs, trade).

Updates with each major releaseAtlanta Fed ↗

BofA Bull & Bear

18-input sentiment model (0–10)

Neutral

4.5

Neutral

Score of 4.5/10 — neither extreme greed nor capitulation. Contrarian signal: readings below 2 = buy, above 8 = sell. Weekly from BofA Global Research.

0–2 bull · 4–6 neutral · 8–10 bear

Live Market Charts — TradingView

Natural Gas

Henry Hub Natural Gas — Annual avg ($/MMBtu)

~$2.50

Spring lull. Watch for summer spike as LNG exports rise and cooling demand peaks in June–August.

EIA Gas Weekly ↗

Why Natural Gas Matters Now

Fertilizer link: About 80% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizer (urea, anhydrous ammonia) is natural gas. When gas spikes, fertilizer costs spike — and food prices follow 6–12 months later.

Electricity: About 40% of US electricity comes from natural gas. Higher gas prices mean higher utility bills for homes and businesses.

LNG exports: 100% of US production gains are exported. More LNG terminals = tighter domestic supply = higher bills. Trump reversed Biden's LNG export slowdown.

Europe: Far more gas-dependent than the US. Prolonged Middle East disruption puts European energy security at risk, which moves global gas markets.

Agricultural Inputs & Fertilizer

Fertilizer prices lead CPI food components by 6–12 months. Mosaic (MOS) is a live proxy for fertilizer sector health.

Urea (Nitrogen) — approx $/MT

~$340

Main nitrogen fertilizer. ~80% of cost is natural gas. Spiked to $850 in 2022 energy crisis.

IndexMundi ↗

DAP (Phosphate) — approx $/MT

~$445

Key phosphate fertilizer. Linked to mining costs and China export policy.

IndexMundi ↗

Mosaic Co. (MOS) — Fertilizer Proxy

~$21

Largest N. American fertilizer producer. Peaked at $72 in 2022 energy crisis.

Yahoo Finance ↗

⚡ Energy Supply Monitor — Mr. Global

Key indicators tracked by Matt Randolph — 33 years in oil & gas, owns an operating oil company. @MrGlobalYouTube

WTI Crude Oil Price

$62/bbl

$70 — new well break-even floor

$60 — existing well profitability floor

Below new well break-even — drilling stops

Implication: At $62, oil companies will not drill new wells — it costs more than they make. "Drill Baby Drill" is economically impossible at this price. The US needs ~$70/bbl to incentivize new drilling. 100% of US production gains since 2016 have been exported.

How to assess: $60–$70 = no new drilling but existing wells continue. Below $60 = some existing wells go offline. Above $70 = new drilling resumes in 6–12 months. Watch Baker Hughes rig count as the lagging confirmation.

EIA WTI daily ↗

Baker Hughes US Rig Count

↓ Declining

Need ~700 rigs for flat production

Fewer rigs than Inauguration Day

Supply contraction signal — watch weekly

Implication: The US needs 7,000–8,000 new wells per year just to hold production flat — every existing well declines from day one. Fewer rigs = fewer new wells = US output falls 12–18 months out. The rig count is the earliest reliable signal of future production direction.

How to assess: Baker Hughes publishes every Friday. Three consecutive weekly declines = contraction confirmed. Three weekly gains = supply recovery beginning. "Drill Baby Drill" is directly falsifiable — this is the scoreboard.

Baker Hughes weekly ↗

Strait of Hormuz Status

Day ~80

Normal: 20M b/d pass through

Bypassed via Cape route: ~8M b/d

Net lost to market: ~12–13M b/d

Closure ongoing — cannot be rerouted at scale

Implication: There is no infrastructure to replace 12–13M b/d. Rerouting around Africa adds weeks and triples shipping costs. Global SPRs are being drawn down daily — but they have floors. Once SPRs are exhausted, the market has no cushion left.

How to assess: Oil $90–$110 = market absorbing via SPR draw. Oil $130+ = cushion thinning fast. Diplomatic talks with Iran = most bullish signal. Ceasefire = buy signal. New military ultimatum = no progress.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve

~340M bbl

Release: 1.22M b/d (record)

Gap filled: ~10% of disruption

Record release rate — still can't fill the gap

Implication: Even at record 1.22M b/d release, the SPR plugs only ~10% of the 12–13M b/d disruption. SPR "loans" do not suppress prices — the market expects that oil back. Only outright sales suppress spot prices.

How to assess: EIA publishes SPR levels weekly. Below 300M bbl = serious. Below 250M bbl = critical. Watch whether releases are loans vs. sales — only sales create real price suppression.

EIA SPR weekly ↗

Henry Hub Natural Gas

~$2.50/MMBtu

Now: spring lull, mild demand

Summer + LNG exports → price spike

Deceptively quiet — watch June–August

Implication: Spring prices look calm — but they are seasonal. Once summer heat arrives and LNG exports ramp up, domestic supply tightens rapidly. People in deregulated NE states have seen $1,200–$1,400 monthly electric bills.

How to assess: Henry Hub below $3 = stable bills. $3–$5 = elevated. Above $5 = utility bill shock. Watch: summer temperature forecasts, LNG export terminal utilization, storage injection vs. 5-year average.

EIA Gas weekly ↗

Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Watch

Connects Red Sea to Indian Ocean

If closed: second chokepoint gone

Open but at risk — escalation path close

Implication: If Bab-el-Mandeb closes alongside Hormuz, two of the world's critical maritime arteries fail simultaneously. At that point we are no longer discussing recession — we are discussing a depression on the scale of the 1930s. Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq alone processes 7% of global oil supply.

How to assess: Houthi attack frequency in the Red Sea is the leading indicator. Any confirmed strike on Abqaiq or major Gulf infrastructure = immediate price spike. Two straits closing simultaneously = scenario outside normal financial modeling.

Food Price Inflation

4-yr High

Fastest rise in 4 years

Oil → fertilizer → shipping → food

Oil shock transmitting into food prices

Implication: Food prices rising at a 4-year high is the first visible consumer sign that the oil supply shock is spreading. The chain: high fuel costs raise fertilizer costs, which raise farming costs, which raise shipping costs, which raise grocery prices.

How to assess: USDA Food Price Outlook and CPI food sub-index. If food inflation persists even after oil stabilizes, second-round effects are embedded — the Fed cannot ignore this, may raise rates into a slowing economy. That is stagflation.

LNG Export Volumes

↑ Rising

100% of US gas gains go to export

More exports = higher domestic prices

Exports pulling domestic prices higher

Implication: Every increase in US natural gas production has been exported — domestic consumers do not benefit. LNG exports are rising under Trump (Biden tried to slow approvals to protect domestic bills; Trump reversed this). More LNG terminals = tighter domestic supply = higher bills.

How to assess: EIA publishes weekly LNG export data. Rising exports correlated with rising Henry Hub prices confirm the squeeze. Any new LNG terminal approved = future domestic price pressure in 18–24 months.

EIA LNG data ↗

⚠ Worst-Case Scenarios — if Hormuz stays closed through summer

Oil Price

→ $200/bbl

"That's arithmetic, not a prediction." SPR depletion + no reroute capacity + summer demand = price formula with no natural ceiling.

Global GDP

−3 to −4%

Worse than 2008. Simultaneous global recession with no coordinated fiscal response — all governments already stretched from COVID stimulus.

Both Straits Close

Depression

Hormuz + Bab-el-Mandeb simultaneously = global supply chain rupture. 1930s-scale contraction. Cannot be fixed by any "transition to alternatives."

Infrastructure Damage

Years of Pain

Abqaiq processes 7% of global oil. Significant damage = years to rebuild. This scenario outlasts any ceasefire — the sleeper risk.

Fed Funds Rate

4.33%

Normal

CPI Inflation

3.2%

Normal

Oil Price

$105

Watch

Bond Yields

4.59%

Normal

Bond Prices

92.4

Normal

S&P 500

5,820

Normal

Unemployment

4.1%

Normal

Scenario Presets — jump to a macro environment

Click an indicator above

Select any gauge card to see what drives it and what it pushes in the economy.

Adjust Variables — all gauges update live

Fed Funds Rate4.33%

0% → 10% | base: 4.33%

CPI Inflation (YoY)3.2%

0% → 12% | base: 3.2%

10-Year Yield4.59%

0.5% → 9% | base: 4.59%

Unemployment4.1%

2% → 14% | base: 4.1%

Oil Price ($/bbl)$105

$30 → $200 | base: $105

S&P 5005,820

1,500 → 8,500 | base: 5,820

Projected Impacts

5-yr rolling correlations. Bond duration ~7.5. Effects have 12–18mo lags in reality.

Larry's Lens

Overview

Geopolitical Threads

Markets

Key Economic Indicators

Energy & Commodities

Macro Tools

My Position